Expert Weather Insights
Forensic Meteorologists on 2026 Midwest Tornados, Hurricane Season and El Niño
Patrick Hyland, CCM, Senior Forensic Meteorologist
Severe weather has redrawn the map for risk in the United States in 2026.
The Midwest, not the traditional Tornado Alley corridor, has produced the most active tornado season on record for several states this year, with wind, hail, and tornado damage claims following close behind. As of the authoring of this newsletter, 210 tornadoes have been confirmed by the National Weather Service (NWS) in Illinois for 2026 – the most ever for the state of Illinois. Further, the number of tornado warnings issued by NWS Forecast Offices in the Midwest (e.g., Lincoln, IL; Kansas City, MO; and Quad Cities, IA) has met or exceeded the number of tornado warnings issued by traditional ‘Tornado Alley’ Forecast Offices for the 2026 calendar year (e.g., Norman/Oklahoma City, OK).
In fact, since the onset of recordkeeping of warning products issued by NWS Forecast Offices, the states of Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan have seen the most tornado warnings issued in their respective states in 2026 than any year previous. For claims and litigation tied to these events, establishing exact weather conditions at a specific time and place can influence how a case moves forward.
Several notable severe weather events in 2026 are responsible for these record-breaking statistics.
Notable 2026 Severe Weather Events in the Midwest
March 10, 2026
A severe weather outbreak on March 10, 2026, produced tornadoes and a swath of large hail across the Midwest from Kansas City, Missouri, into western Michigan. The Kankakee River Valley supercell in northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana produced 12 different tornadoes, including an EF-3 tornado (maximum winds up to 160 mph).
June 10-11, 2026
A line of thunderstorms moved across the Upper Midwest during the afternoon hours and produced multiple severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater), including some brief tornadoes. The line of thunderstorms was officially classified as a derecho (an unbroken or semi-broken line of thunderstorms that produces damage with at least five significant wind gusts of 70+ mph and a path length of severe wind reports over an area at least 250 miles long).
The following day, a severe weather outbreak produced at least 52 confirmed tornadoes across Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan, with six of the tornadoes rated EF-2 or higher. The strongest tornado was an EF-3 tornado (maximum winds up to 165 mph) in the Hebron/Kouts, Indiana, area.
July 27, 2026
Thunderstorms moved from the northwest to the southeast across northern and eastern Wisconsin during the morning and early afternoon hours. A supercell thunderstorm rapidly developed around noon near the Appleton area and produced an EF-3 tornado (maximum winds up to 140 mph) that moved to the south through Menasha. In addition to the EF-3 tornado, there were also several reports of 2-inch and greater hail associated with the thunderstorms on July 27, 2026, including a report of hail over 4 inches near Gresham.
American Weather Enterprise Association (AWEA)
There are several other developments within the weather enterprise aside from severe weather. Recently, an advocacy group for the weather enterprise, called the American Weather Enterprise Association (AWEA), formed to advance legislative priorities and strengthen engagement with federal policymakers. This group helped facilitate the creation of a bipartisan weather caucus (the Weather Enterprise Caucus), led by Representatives Mike Flood (R-NE) and Eric Sorensen (D-IL), to advance weather forecasting, research, and disaster preparedness. One of the main goals of this Weather Enterprise Caucus is to create a National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)-style agency, the National Weather Safety Board, to review major weather-related disasters.
The 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast
Early September marks the climatological peak of hurricane season, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to predict below-normal activity for the Atlantic Basin. As of the authoring of this newsletter, there have been four (4) named tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly) in the Atlantic Basin for the 2026 hurricane season. Meteorologists are watching a potential tropical cyclone in the Gulf, which could become another named tropical storm, Edouard.
How Does El Niño Affect Atlantic Hurricane Activity?
A strengthening El Niño is responsible for the anticipated decrease in tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Basin. El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean when sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal. El Niño typically leads to an increase in wind shear (the change of wind speed and wind direction with height) in the Atlantic Basin, which prevents tropical storms from forming and/or strengthening.
Haag’s Forensic Meteorology Services
Haag Forensic Meteorology has a team of meteorologists with 60+ years of experience observing, forecasting, broadcasting, researching, and issuing warnings for all types of weather. Meteorology isn’t just a job, it’s our passion – a passion that goes into each one of our projects.
Haag’s forensic meteorology services help clients determine weather conditions at a given location and time. Using a combination of local weather data, surface observations, radar, and/or storm reports, we provide expert analysis that support insurance claims, litigation, wrongful death lawsuits, motor vehicle accidents, etc. This type of analysis can be performed on its own or in conjunction with an engineering evaluation by one of our licensed engineers.
Our team includes meteorologists with the Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM) designation from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). We regularly provide expert testimony in cases involving:
- Extreme Wind and Hail Events
- Heavy Rain and Flooding
- Roof Collapses
- Slip and Fall Accidents
- Vehicle Accidents
- Personal Injury and Wrongful Death Claims
Let’s Talk about Your Assignment
When weather is a factor, precise and defensible analysis can make all the difference. If you need expert insight into past weather conditions, whether for a claim, legal case, or accident investigation, Haag’s forensic meteorology consultants are here to help. Submit an assignment or contact us to request a consultation with one of our experts.
Patrick Hyland, CCM
Patrick Hyland, CCM, is a Senior Forensic Meteorologist with Haag, a Salas O’Brien Company. Mr. Hyland has over 16 years of experience in meteorology, including ten years providing meteorological consulting services for a variety of cases where expertise is required. He most recently served as a Research Meteorologist with the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Warning Research Development Division (WRDD). He was responsible for developing cutting-edge tools, algorithms, products, and techniques to improve the warning-decision-making process for use in operational National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices for the protection of life and property. He focused on radar severe weather applications, probability and impacts research, and the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system.
As a Consulting Meteorologist for Snow & Associates and HylandWX Consulting, Mr. Hyland was responsible for gathering relevant datasets from various databases for weather-related cases and creating visualizations of datasets for report writing, depositions, and expert testimony. He served as the Coordinator of External Relations for the National Weather Center, where he worked to bridge the gap between science and the public through management of the National Weather Center tour program and outreach efforts to promote the University of Oklahoma and NOAA. Mr. Hyland has also served as a Research Fellow, investigating the microphysical and electrical structure of clouds during natural and rocket-and-wire triggered lightning strikes.
Mr. Hyland earned a Master of Science degree in Meteorology from University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, and a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology with Special Distinction from the University of Oklahoma. His certifications include American Meteorological Society Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM #771) and Certified Tourism Ambassador (CTA) with the Greater Oklahoma City Tourism Ambassadors Program. He has been honored with 2022 Trailblazer Award from Pathful, Inc. and the National Weather Association (NWA) Special Appreciation Award, among many others. His memberships include the American Meteorological Society, Association of Certified Meteorologists, National Weather Association, National Weather Museum and Science Center, Norman Chamber of Commerce Weather Committee, and NormanNEXT.
Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of Haag, a Salas O’Brien Company or subsidiaries.
